INTRODUCTION:
Monetary Policy the policy adopted
by the central bank for control of the supply of money as an instrument
for achieving the objectives of general economic policy.With the shifts of the
policy stance of the government in various phases, necessary adjustments were made in the country's monetary
policy. The Department of Research in the Bangladesh Bank plays an important
role in the formulation of economic policies of the country.The principal function of the Department is to
help the bank in the formulation of monetary and credit policies
and also to assist it in discharging its duty as adviser tothe Government on economic and financial matters.
To this end, the departmentkeeps the top executives of the bank fully
informed of latest economic developmentboth
at home and abroad, in a regular and systematic manner. For this purpose
theDepartment keeps a close watch on trends in the domestic economy as well as
oninternational economic developments with particular reference to monetary,
fiscaland trade problems and policies.Domestic and international
economic developments are brought within the compassof comprehensive reports and reviews which are submitted for perusal of
theGovernor, Deputy Governor, and Senior Executives of the bank, as also
the bank’sBoard of Directors.
Definition
of Monetary Policy:
Monetary policy is the term used by
economists to describe ways of managing thesupply
of money in an economy. Monetary Policy is the management of moneysupply and
interest rates by central bank to influence prices and employment for achieving the objectives of general economic
policy. Monetary policy worksthrough
expansion or contraction of investment and consumption expenditure.
According to Paul
Einzig “Monetary policy includes all monetary decisions and
measures irrespective of whether their aims are monetary and
non-monetary, and all non-monetary decisionsand measures that aim it affecting
the monetary system.”
According to
Harry G. Johnson “Monetary policy employing the central band’s control of supply
of money as aninstrument for achieving the
objectives of general economic policy.”
According to G.K.
Shaw “By
monetary policy we mean any conscious action undertaken by the monetaryauthorities, to exchange the quantity, or cost
(interest rate) of money.”
From the above discussion monetary
policy may be defined as the central bank’s policy
pertaining to the control of the availability, cost and use of money and
creditwith the help of monetary measures in order to achieve specific goals.
The regulation of the
money supply and interest rates by a central bank, such as the Central
Bank of Bangladesh in
order to control inflation and stabilize currency. Monetary policy is
one the two ways the
government can impact the economy. By impacting the effective cost of
money, the Bangladesh
Bank as a controller of monetary policy can affect the amount of
money that is spent
by consumers and businesses.
Monetary policy is
the process by which the monetary authority of a country controls the
supply of money,
often targeting a rate of interest for the purpose of promoting economic
growth and stability.
The official goals usually include relatively stable prices and low
unemployment. . Monetary theory provides insight into how to craft optimal
monetary policy.
Monetary policy is
the process by which the government, central bank, or monetary authority
of a country controls
a) the supply of
money,
b) availability of
money, and
c) Cost of money or
rate of interest to attain a set of objectives oriented towards the
growth and stability
of the economy.
d) Monetary theory
provides insight into how to craft optimal monetary policy.
Scope of monetary policy:
Monetary
decisions today take into account a wider range of factors, such as:
- Short term interest rates;
- Long term interest rates;
- Velocity of money through the economy;
- Exchange rates
- Credit quality
- Bonds and equities (corporate ownership and debt)
- Government versus private sector spending/savings
- International capital flows of money on large scales
- Financial derivatives such as options, swaps, futures contracts, etc.
Objectives of monetary policy:
The objectives of a monetary policy
in Bangladesh aim at growth, stability and social justice. After the Keynesian
revolution in economics, many people accepted significance of monetary policy
in attaining following objectives.
- Rapid Economic Growth
- Price Stability
- Exchange Rate Stability
- Balance of Payments (BOP) Equilibrium
- Full Employment
- Neutrality of Money
- Equal Income Distribution
These are the general objectives
which every central bank of a nation tries to attain by employing certain tools
(Instruments) of a monetary policy. Let us now see objectives of monetary policy in detail:-
Rapid Economic Growth
It is the most important objective
of a monetary policy. The monetary policy can influence economic growth by
controlling real interest rate and its resultant impact on the investment.
Price
Stability
The monetary policy having an
objective of price stability tries to keep the value of money
stable. It helps in reducing the income
and wealth inequalities.
Exchange Rate Stability
Exchange rate is very volatile leading to
frequent ups and downs in the exchange rate, the
international community might lose confidence in
our economy. The monetary policy aims at
maintaining the relative stability in the
exchange rate.
Balance of Payments
(BOP) Equilibrium
The BB through its monetary policy tries to
maintain equilibrium in the balance of payments.
The BOP has two aspects i.e. the 'BOP Surplus'
and the 'BOP Deficit'. If the monetary policy
succeeds in maintaining monetary equilibrium,
then the BOP equilibrium can be achieved.
Full Employment
'Full Employment' stands for a situation in
which everybody who wants jobs get jobs.
However it does not mean that there is a Zero
unemployment. In that senses the full
employment is never full. Monetary policy can be
used for achieving full employment. If the
monetary policy is expansionary then credit
supply can be encouraged. It could help in
creating more jobs in different sector of the
economy.
Neutrality of Money
The monetary policy should regulate the supply
of money. The change in money supply
creates monetary disequilibrium. Thus monetary
policy has to regulate the supply of money
and neutralize the effect of money expansion.
Equal Income Distribution
Monetary policy can make special provisions for
the neglect supply such as agriculture,
small-scale industries, village industries, etc.
and provide them with cheaper credit for longer
term. This can prove fruitful for these sectors
to come up. Thus in recent period, monetary
policy can help in reducing economic
inequalities among different sections of society.
Objectives of Monetary policy in Bangladesh:
As stated in the Bangladesh Bank
Order 1972, the principal objectives of the country's
monetary policy are
1. To regulate currency and
reserves;
2. To manage the monetary and credit
system;
3. To preserve the par value of
domestic currency;
4. To promote and maintain a high
level of production, employment and real income; a
5. To foster growth and development
of the country's productive resources in the best
national interest.
Although the long term focus of
monetary policy in Bangladesh is on growth with stability,
the short-term objectives are
determined after a careful and realistic appraisal of the current
economic situation of the country.
Tools
of monetary policy:
Major instruments of
monetary control available with Bangladesh Bank are the bank rate,
open market operations,
rediscount policy, and statutory reserve requirement.
The methods of credit
control can be classified as follows:
Quantitative/ General
Methods Qualitative/ General Methods
01. Bank rate policy 01.
Rationing of credit
02. Open market policy
02. Direct action
03. Variation of reserve
ratio 03. Regulation of consumers’ credit
04. Moral persuasion
05. Publicity
Monetary
policy of Bangladesh:
1.
The lending rate of banks, which had come down to single digit or low 2 digits,
is rather high now, nearing 16-20 per cent depending on nature of loans.
2.
Although Bangladesh Bank (BB) has been pursuing a contractionary monetary
policy, the government of Bangladesh has been pursuing an expansionary fiscal
policy, mainly on account of safety nets and subsidies. The contractionary
monetary policy has reduced the total loanable funds in economy. The government
deficit has further shrunk the funds available for private sector lending. This
has led to crowding out of investments. Such policy if sustained in the long
run can raise the cost of borrowing.
3. Bangladesh being an import-led economy,
contractionary monetary policy coupled with consistent devaluation of taka is
taking a big toll both on producer and consumer welfare. Producers are being
affected as their productivity is hampered due to rising costs; consumers are
affected as producers pass on costs to consumers.
4.
In the coming days, it is expected that the import payments towards meeting the
energy needs of the country will be high. A high interest rate policy is
counterproductive to improving the domestic productive potential of the
economy. It also makes local industry less competitive, thus reducing the scope
for import substitution by setting up local industry.
5.
With the passage of time, the age old differences between real and non-real
financial activity is coming down. While traditionally banks have been the main
source of finance for industrialization, the capital market has emerged as a
viable alternative for entrepreneurs to seek capital. Public companies have
more open books of accounts and pay more taxes than non-listed companies. They
also share the profits with common citizens who receive dividends as reward for
investing in the companies. The capital market also mitigates the needs for
companies to seek capital from banks hence reducing interest rates.
6.
Industrialization in Bangladesh is still in its infancy. Worldwide governments
are helping local producers by offering them tax breaks, cash incentive,
subsidy etc. Yet, even rich countries attach conditions when giving aid that
the procurement for machinery/expertise should be made from the donor country.
7.
The year 2012 the world is seeing a continuation of the 2008 economic crisis.
The effects of devaluation are already worsening domestic inflation. Making
capital costly will further discourage domestic investment in industry. This
will not allow the country to augment its production possibility frontier.
Hence domestic industry will also lose its incentive and competitiveness which
in the long run can only worsen the balance of payments situation as imports increase
to fulfill the needs of a growing population.
8.
BB should coordinate with the government on policy matters. As I have mentioned
earlier the policy goals of BB and GOB need to be aligned, otherwise it can
cause financial devastation.
9.
The BB governor keeps stressing the need to reduce credit flow towards
non-productive sectors. In free market such distinctions are unwarranted. The
role of state and government should be that of a facilitator. BB is trying to
modulate the consumption of citizens which it should not do. It is only
encouraging the government in the process of increasing welfare payments, hence
rising deficit.
10.
In light of the above and the continued global economic crisis, BB may soften
its stance on credit supply. It can seek to ensure financial sector strength,
by asking the banks to further recapitalize themselves. For that again Banks
will need to go for the right offers, which are best induced by a stable
gradually rising capital market.
11.
BB and the present government must get over old 'socialist' ghosts from
deciding the crux of economic policy. Real welfare cannot be ensured by policy
alone. For instance, in spite of the continuous supply of agri-credit by BB,
farmers remain underfed, underemployed, under rewarded, although retail prices
of their produce go higher! This is a direct result of market distortion in
which both BB and the Government of Bangladesh have a role to play.
12.
The Government should allow citizens new ways to seek capital and also with
discretion invest abroad, just like numerous foreign companies are repatriating
huge amounts of dividend in local investments every year. Such international
expansion of local companies will result in ensuring future capital inflows
into Bangladesh.
13.
Excessive controls on capital flow from outside the country have resulted in
distortion of currency markets and given primacy to the role of informal money
transfers and dealings. BB and the Government of Bangladesh should set up a
prudential strategy to encourage more foreign currency inflow. Tax breaks to
multi-national companies which operate in Bangladesh should be conditional on
reinvestments of capital locally. Capital repatriation out of the country
should be discouraged through policy and counselling.
14.
Presently the ‘Cushion Against Risk’ of Bangladeshi banks is only 9% against an
average of 14% for India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. High cost of credit will further deteoriate the asset
quality of banks, leading to higher defaults and even trigger a banking crisis.
The depository insurance policy of BB is inadequate to protect the depositors’
interest. For instance., recently the
Iranian currency depreciated by as much as 40% against the US dollar as a
result of sanctions. In such volatile economic times, we have to do everything
to save and encourage domestic industry. Industry cannot flourish and sustain
with lending rates of banks/non-bank financial institutions reaching 16-21 per
cent.
15.
Presently the real estate sector in Bangladesh is still drawing a lot of investment.
NRBs need to be discouraged to invest in real estate and focus on creation of
industry/agriculture/service sectors. Also to prevent excessive lending in real
estate, BB should make housing sector loans adjustable. This is followed
in Australia which has helped Australia to escape from fallouts of the sub
prime crisis that has incited the present global economic collapse.
16.
BB needs to work with the Government to allow Bangladesh to seek alternative
capital from abroad to reduce the dependence on multilateral lending agencies
such as the World Bank/IMF. While these aid/loans offer lower interest rates,
the policy conditions can in the long run impose huge costs on local economy.
For example, presently Malaysia has zero borrowing from World Bank/ IMF. BB can
recommend GOB to go for further pursue government to government negotiations
with Islamic/other countries that have surplus capital. Malaysia is the perfect
example of development using foreign financing.
17.
Monetary policies need to be used with much care in a low income country like
Bangladesh where narrow money use is still wide. Contractionary monetary policy
coupled with expansionary fiscal policy will fail as government goes for money
printing to finance deficits, again triggering inflation. BB needs to use its
policy tools to allow further recapitalization of Bangladeshi banks, which are
mostly private. To do so, banks need to entice investors by making good
profits. BB has to accept it’s a better trade off for whole economy that the banks
make money, not BB making money at the expense of the banks, by imposing tight
statutory conditions such as higher Statutory Reserve Ration/Cash Reserve
Ratio. Rather BB should advise the government on using Keynesian fiscal
policies in times of economic stress to stimulate employment and growth. For
instance right now, apparently the food reserve is very comfortable for
government. Government can go for labor intensive policies such as canal
digging which will reduce food inventory and allow the government to go for
fresh rice procurement that will ensure fair price to farmers.
18.
In a more sophisticated world, BB needs to protect itself and Bangladeshi
banks/importers from suffering losses in foreign currency transactions. Thus BB
should explore and encourage hedging of trades done by local
importers/exporters.
19.
BB should establish a joint venture export import bank of Bangladesh to assist
trade finance of Bangladesh. This will allow the country to save a huge
amount in advising fees that are paid to foreign banks that eventually increase
the cost of trade.
