Assignment on Monetary Policy in Bangladesh

 

INTRODUCTION:

Monetary Policy the policy adopted by the central bank for control of the supply of money as an instrument for achieving the objectives of general economic policy.With the shifts of the policy stance of the government in various phases, necessary adjustments were made in the country's monetary policy. The Department of Research in the Bangladesh Bank plays an important role in the formulation of economic policies of the country.The principal function of the Department is to help the bank in the formulation of monetary and credit policies and also to assist it in discharging its duty as adviser tothe Government on economic and financial matters. To this end, the departmentkeeps the top executives of the bank fully informed of latest economic developmentboth at home and abroad, in a regular and systematic manner. For this purpose theDepartment keeps a close watch on trends in the domestic economy as well as oninternational economic developments with particular reference to monetary, fiscaland trade problems and policies.Domestic and international economic developments are brought within the compassof comprehensive reports and reviews which are submitted for perusal of theGovernor, Deputy Governor, and Senior Executives of the bank, as also the bank’sBoard of Directors.

Definition of Monetary Policy:

Monetary policy is the term used by economists to describe ways of managing thesupply of money in an economy. Monetary Policy is the management of moneysupply and interest rates by central bank to influence prices and employment for achieving the objectives of general economic policy. Monetary policy worksthrough expansion or contraction of investment and consumption expenditure.

According to Paul Einzig “Monetary policy includes all monetary decisions and measures irrespective of whether their aims are monetary and non-monetary, and all non-monetary decisionsand measures that aim it affecting the monetary system.”

According to Harry G. Johnson “Monetary policy employing the central band’s control of supply of money as aninstrument for achieving the objectives of general economic policy.”

According to G.K. Shaw “By monetary policy we mean any conscious action undertaken by the monetaryauthorities, to exchange the quantity, or cost (interest rate) of money.”

From the above discussion monetary policy may be defined as the central bank’s policy pertaining to the control of the availability, cost and use of money and creditwith the help of monetary measures in order to achieve specific goals.

The regulation of the money supply and interest rates by a central bank, such as the Central

Bank of Bangladesh in order to control inflation and stabilize currency. Monetary policy is

one the two ways the government can impact the economy. By impacting the effective cost of

money, the Bangladesh Bank as a controller of monetary policy can affect the amount of

money that is spent by consumers and businesses.

Monetary policy is the process by which the monetary authority of a country controls the

supply of money, often targeting a rate of interest for the purpose of promoting economic

growth and stability. The official goals usually include relatively stable prices and low

unemployment. . Monetary theory provides insight into how to craft optimal monetary policy.

Monetary policy is the process by which the government, central bank, or monetary authority

of a country controls

a) the supply of money,

b) availability of money, and

c) Cost of money or rate of interest to attain a set of objectives oriented towards the

growth and stability of the economy.

d) Monetary theory provides insight into how to craft optimal monetary policy.

Scope of monetary policy:

Monetary decisions today take into account a wider range of factors, such as:

• Short term interest rates;
• Long term interest rates;
• Velocity of money through the economy;
• Exchange rates
• Credit quality
• Bonds and equities (corporate ownership and debt)
• Government versus private sector spending/savings
• International capital flows of money on large scales
• Financial derivatives such as options, swaps, futures contracts, etc.

Objectives of monetary policy:

The objectives of a monetary policy in Bangladesh aim at growth, stability and social justice. After the Keynesian revolution in economics, many people accepted significance of monetary policy in attaining following objectives.

• Rapid Economic Growth
• Price Stability
• Exchange Rate Stability
• Balance of Payments (BOP) Equilibrium
• Full Employment
• Neutrality of Money
• Equal Income Distribution

These are the general objectives which every central bank of a nation tries to attain by employing certain tools (Instruments) of a monetary policy. Let us now see objectives of monetary policy in detail:- 

Rapid Economic Growth

It is the most important objective of a monetary policy. The monetary policy can influence economic growth by controlling real interest rate and its resultant impact on the investment.

Price Stability

The monetary policy having an objective of price stability tries to keep the value of money

stable. It helps in reducing the income and wealth inequalities.

Exchange Rate Stability

Exchange rate is very volatile leading to frequent ups and downs in the exchange rate, the

international community might lose confidence in our economy. The monetary policy aims at

maintaining the relative stability in the exchange rate.

Balance of Payments (BOP) Equilibrium

The BB through its monetary policy tries to maintain equilibrium in the balance of payments.

The BOP has two aspects i.e. the 'BOP Surplus' and the 'BOP Deficit'. If the monetary policy

succeeds in maintaining monetary equilibrium, then the BOP equilibrium can be achieved.

Full Employment

'Full Employment' stands for a situation in which everybody who wants jobs get jobs.

However it does not mean that there is a Zero unemployment. In that senses the full

employment is never full. Monetary policy can be used for achieving full employment. If the

monetary policy is expansionary then credit supply can be encouraged. It could help in

creating more jobs in different sector of the economy.

Neutrality of Money

The monetary policy should regulate the supply of money. The change in money supply

creates monetary disequilibrium. Thus monetary policy has to regulate the supply of money

and neutralize the effect of money expansion.

Equal Income Distribution

Monetary policy can make special provisions for the neglect supply such as agriculture,

small-scale industries, village industries, etc. and provide them with cheaper credit for longer

term. This can prove fruitful for these sectors to come up. Thus in recent period, monetary

policy can help in reducing economic inequalities among different sections of society.

Objectives of Monetary policy in Bangladesh:

As stated in the Bangladesh Bank Order 1972, the principal objectives of the country's

monetary policy are

1. To regulate currency and reserves;

2. To manage the monetary and credit system;

3. To preserve the par value of domestic currency;

4. To promote and maintain a high level of production, employment and real income; a

5. To foster growth and development of the country's productive resources in the best

national interest.

Although the long term focus of monetary policy in Bangladesh is on growth with stability,

the short-term objectives are determined after a careful and realistic appraisal of the current

economic situation of the country.

Tools of monetary policy:

Major instruments of monetary control available with Bangladesh Bank are the bank rate,

open market operations, rediscount policy, and statutory reserve requirement.

The methods of credit control can be classified as follows:

Quantitative/ General Methods Qualitative/ General Methods

01. Bank rate policy 01. Rationing of credit

02. Open market policy 02. Direct action

03. Variation of reserve ratio 03. Regulation of consumers’ credit

04. Moral persuasion

05. Publicity

Monetary policy of Bangladesh:

1. The lending rate of banks, which had come down to single digit or low 2 digits, is rather high now, nearing 16-20 per cent depending on nature of loans.

2. Although Bangladesh Bank (BB) has been pursuing a contractionary monetary policy, the government of Bangladesh has been pursuing an expansionary fiscal policy, mainly on account of safety nets and subsidies. The contractionary monetary policy has reduced the total loanable funds in economy. The government deficit has further shrunk the funds available for private sector lending. This has led to crowding out of investments. Such policy if sustained in the long run can raise the cost of borrowing.

 3. Bangladesh being an import-led economy, contractionary monetary policy coupled with consistent devaluation of taka is taking a big toll both on producer and consumer welfare. Producers are being affected as their productivity is hampered due to rising costs; consumers are affected as producers pass on costs to consumers.

4. In the coming days, it is expected that the import payments towards meeting the energy needs of the country will be high. A high interest rate policy is counterproductive to improving the domestic productive potential of the economy. It also makes local industry less competitive, thus reducing the scope for import substitution by setting up local industry.

5. With the passage of time, the age old differences between real and non-real financial activity is coming down. While traditionally banks have been the main source of finance for industrialization, the capital market has emerged as a viable alternative for entrepreneurs to seek capital. Public companies have more open books of accounts and pay more taxes than non-listed companies. They also share the profits with common citizens who receive dividends as reward for investing in the companies. The capital market also mitigates the needs for companies to seek capital from banks hence reducing interest rates.

6. Industrialization in Bangladesh is still in its infancy. Worldwide governments are helping local producers by offering them tax breaks, cash incentive, subsidy etc. Yet, even rich countries attach conditions when giving aid that the procurement for machinery/expertise should be made from the donor country.

7. The year 2012 the world is seeing a continuation of the 2008 economic crisis. The effects of devaluation are already worsening domestic inflation. Making capital costly will further discourage domestic investment in industry. This will not allow the country to augment its production possibility frontier. Hence domestic industry will also lose its incentive and competitiveness which in the long run can only worsen the balance of payments situation as imports increase to fulfill the needs of a growing population.

8. BB should coordinate with the government on policy matters. As I have mentioned earlier the policy goals of BB and GOB need to be aligned, otherwise it can cause financial devastation.

9. The BB governor keeps stressing the need to reduce credit flow towards non-productive sectors. In free market such distinctions are unwarranted. The role of state and government should be that of a facilitator. BB is trying to modulate the consumption of citizens which it should not do. It is only encouraging the government in the process of increasing welfare payments, hence rising deficit. 

10. In light of the above and the continued global economic crisis, BB may soften its stance on credit supply. It can seek to ensure financial sector strength, by asking the banks to further recapitalize themselves. For that again Banks will need to go for the right offers, which are best induced by a stable gradually rising capital market.

11. BB and the present government must get over old 'socialist' ghosts from deciding the crux of economic policy. Real welfare cannot be ensured by policy alone. For instance, in spite of the continuous supply of agri-credit by BB, farmers remain underfed, underemployed, under rewarded, although retail prices of their produce go higher! This is a direct result of market distortion in which both BB and the Government of Bangladesh have a role to play.

12. The Government should allow citizens new ways to seek capital and also with discretion invest abroad, just like numerous foreign companies are repatriating huge amounts of dividend in local investments every year. Such international expansion of local companies will result in ensuring future capital inflows into Bangladesh.

13. Excessive controls on capital flow from outside the country have resulted in distortion of currency markets and given primacy to the role of informal money transfers and dealings. BB and the Government of Bangladesh should set up a prudential strategy to encourage more foreign currency inflow. Tax breaks to multi-national companies which operate in Bangladesh should be conditional on reinvestments of capital locally. Capital repatriation out of the country should be discouraged through policy and counselling.

14. Presently the ‘Cushion Against Risk’ of Bangladeshi banks is only 9% against an average of 14% for India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. High cost of credit will further deteoriate the asset quality of banks, leading to higher defaults and even trigger a banking crisis. The depository insurance policy of BB is inadequate to protect the depositors’ interest.  For instance., recently the Iranian currency depreciated by as much as 40% against the US dollar as a result of sanctions. In such volatile economic times, we have to do everything to save and encourage domestic industry. Industry cannot flourish and sustain with lending rates of banks/non-bank financial institutions reaching 16-21 per cent.

15. Presently the real estate sector in Bangladesh is still drawing a lot of investment. NRBs need to be discouraged to invest in real estate and focus on creation of industry/agriculture/service sectors. Also to prevent excessive lending in real estate, BB should make housing sector loans adjustable.  This is followed in Australia which has helped Australia to escape from fallouts of the sub prime crisis that has incited the present global economic collapse.

16. BB needs to work with the Government to allow Bangladesh to seek alternative capital from abroad to reduce the dependence on multilateral lending agencies such as the World Bank/IMF. While these aid/loans offer lower interest rates, the policy conditions can in the long run impose huge costs on local economy. For example, presently Malaysia has zero borrowing from World Bank/ IMF. BB can recommend GOB to go for further pursue government to government negotiations with Islamic/other countries that have surplus capital. Malaysia is the perfect example of development using foreign financing.

17. Monetary policies need to be used with much care in a low income country like Bangladesh where narrow money use is still wide. Contractionary monetary policy coupled with expansionary fiscal policy will fail as government goes for money printing to finance deficits, again triggering inflation. BB needs to use its policy tools to allow further recapitalization of Bangladeshi banks, which are mostly private. To do so, banks need to entice investors by making good profits. BB has to accept it’s a better trade off for whole economy that the banks make money, not BB making money at the expense of the banks, by imposing tight statutory conditions such as higher Statutory Reserve Ration/Cash Reserve Ratio. Rather BB should advise the government on using Keynesian fiscal policies in times of economic stress to stimulate employment and growth. For instance right now, apparently the food reserve is very comfortable for government. Government can go for labor intensive policies such as canal digging which will reduce food inventory and allow the government to go for fresh rice procurement that will ensure fair price to farmers. 

18. In a more sophisticated world, BB needs to protect itself and Bangladeshi banks/importers from suffering losses in foreign currency transactions. Thus BB should explore and encourage hedging of trades done by local importers/exporters. 

19. BB should establish a joint venture export import bank of Bangladesh to assist trade finance of Bangladesh. This will allow the country to save a huge amount in advising fees that are paid to foreign banks that eventually increase the cost of trade.